[경제] 파이퍼샌들러 'S&P500, 안도 랠리 준비…연말 4,825 가능'

LINK : https://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=4284779

(서울=연합인포맥스) 진정호 기자 = 미국 증시가 미국 국채금리 상승 등 많은 제약 요인이 있음에도 연말이면 안도감이 확산되면서 약 12% 상승할 것이라는 주장이 나왔다.

19일(현지시각) 미국 CNBC에 따르면 파이퍼샌들러의 크렉 존슨 차트 분석가는 "현재 시장에는 헤드라인 리스크가 늘어나고 있지만 미국 증시가 부정적인 재료를 흡수하고 하방을 지지하는 탄력성은 여전히 인상적"이라며 "극단적인 과매도 환경이 넓게 퍼져있고 스탠더드앤드푸어스(S&P)500 지수가 4,200선을 사수하는 만큼 주식이 계절적으로 강세를 보였던 4분기에는 안도 랠리가 나타날 수 있다"고 내다봤다.

파이퍼샌들러는 이 같은 전망을 바탕으로 S&P500이 연말이면 4,825까지 오를 수 있다고 전망했다. 이는 현재보다 약 12% 상승한 수치다.

존슨 분석가는 미국 기업 실적이 계속 강해지고 있고 소매판매도 예상치를 뛰어넘었다며 펀더멘털이 뚜렷하게 개선되는 흐름이라고 이유를 붙였다.

그는 최근 미국 국채금리가 급등세를 이어가면서 주식도 상승세가 둔화했지만 시장 내부적으로는 일부 호전되는 부분이 보인다며 뉴욕증권거래소(NYSE)와 나스닥에서 주가가 오른 종목이 내린 종목을 상회하고 있다고 강조했다. 이들 종목의 비율은 1.35 대 1로 집계됐다.

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S&P 500 Index Set for Rally by Year’s End, Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-20/piper-sandler-says-stage-set-for-14-s-p-500-rally-by-year-s-end

Alexandra Semenova

2023년 10월 21일 오전 12:40 GMT+9
Updated on 2023년 10월 21일 오전 5:51 GMT+9

Even as conflict in the Middle East roils equity markets, the S&P 500 Index has held above a crucial level monitored by traders — evidence of a resilience that signals a big rally is imminent for US stocks.

That’s according to Piper Sandler & Co.’s Craig Johnson, who bets extremely oversold conditions and the index’s ability to hold above the key 4,200 technical support level sets the stage for a jump of some 14% from now until the year’s end.

“We’re at the very lower end of this upper trending price channel — it’s going to take a lot to break through that level,” Johnson, Chief Market Technician for the firm, said in an interview. “When you’re this oversold, you’re back to the end of the channel. One doesn’t get hurt falling out of a basement window.---”

The S&P 500 fell 1.3% to close at 4,224 on Friday, leaving it only slightly above the closely-watched 4,200 mark. A bout of recent weakness over the prospect that interest rates will remain elevated has placed US stocks on pace for a third consecutive month of declines, chipping away at what had been a strong bounce-back from last year’s rout.

But Johnson and some others on Wall Street bet the extreme pessimism seen recently, along with seasonal tailwinds, could send stocks for another run before the year is out.

The volatility has sent nearly 30% of the stocks in the S&P 500 to oversold levels, technically defined as having relative-strength index readings below 30 — what’s considered a “momentum washout,” according to Johnson.

Such conditions typically precede returns that are “quite constructive and quite positive,” he said. In fact, he anticipates “more than a relief rally” for US equities, predicting the S&P 500 could hit 4,825 before the end of 2023.

A similar message was echoed Friday by Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett, who said investor p-ositioning in stocks has become so negative that it’s triggered a contrarian “buy signal.” 

Yet there remain concerns that the stock market could be pulled down if the economy stalls or Israel’s war with Hamas expands into a broader conflict in the Middle East.

Even within Piper Sandler, there’s little conviction that US equities will end the year on a strong note. The firm’s chief investment strategist, Michael Kantrowitz, has a year-end S&P 500 target range of 3,600-3,800, one of the most bearish on Wall Street.

And risks to the downside could still vindicate Wall Street’s bears. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled Thursday that while policymakers are likely to hold rates steady at their November meeting, further hikes remain on the table to keep inflation at bay, posing a threat to economic and corporate growth. Moreover, consumer spending may fizzle as Americans burn through pandemic-era savings and student loan payments resume.

Still, Johnson said “you want to think about headlines versus trend lines.” If trend lines aren’t broken, investors who have been waiting to deploy pools of money will begin to pile in.

“I think more people are becoming concerned about missing the turn up versus missing the turn down,” Johnson said. “We already went through the turn down in 2022, and you made your capitulation bottom and your momentum bottom a year ago. This is just a check back.”