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[경제] 노인을 위한 주식은 없다? 있다!…고금리 수혜주 - BofA2023.10.29 PM 02:32
[블록미디어 James Jung 기자] 미국 현대문학의 거장 코맥 매카시의 소설이죠. ‘노인을 위한 나라는 없다'(No Country for Old Men). 동명의 영화도 있습니다.
뱅크 오브 아메리카(BofA)는 ‘노인을 위한 주식이 있다’는 보고서를 냈습니다. 여기서 노인은 베이비 부머 세대입니다. 이 보고서는 세대간 부의 격차가 팬데믹 전후로 더욱 확대됐다고 주장합니다.
베이비 부머 세대는 장기간 낮은 인플레와 저금리 상황에서 열심히 일만 했죠. 연금, 저축에서 나오는 이자도 아주 낮았습니다. 연준이 공격적으로 금리를 올리면서 사정이 달라졌습니다. 은퇴 노인들에게 20년만에 두둑한 이자가 나갈 수 있습니다.
BofA는 두 종목을 콕 집었습니다. 카드회사 아메리칸 익스프레스와 크루즈 회사들입니다. 미국의 베이비 부머 노인들은 아멕스 카드를 점점 더 많이 씁니다. 돈 많은 노인들은 크루즈 여행을 떠납니다. 50세 이상에서 지출 순위 1위가 여행입니다. 호텔, 리조트, 크루즈 관련주는 올해 28% 상승했습니다.
MZ 세대는요? 미국 밀레니얼 세대에서는 의류 소비 지출이 감소하고 있습니다. 경쟁 업체 대비 상대적으로 고가의 의류를 취급하는 이커머스가 특히 위험합니다. 핸드폰으로 명품 쇼핑할 돈 없습니다.
영화 ‘노인을 위한 나라는 없다’에서 역대급 살인마가 나옵니다. 상점 주인한테 다짜고짜 동전 던지기 게임을 하자고 합니다. 상점 주인이 이깁니다. 악당이 말하죠. “행운의 동전인데.”
그리고 그냥 갑니다. 허무하다구요? 직접 보시면 다릅니다. 생사를 건 내기를 한 건데요. 인생은 길죠. 살아남은 노인들에게는 운이 따랐습니다. MZ 세대에게도 행운이 올 수 있을까요?
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(Bloomberg) Buy Boomers, Sell Millennials Is Bank of America’s Way to Play This Market
■ High rates are paying out for the elderly, squeezing the young
■ Boomer trade means buy cruise stocks, not fashion retailers
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Photographer: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
By Alexandra Semenova and Carmen Reinicke
2023년 10월 27일 오후 10:01 GMT+9
Baby boomers are flush, with high interest rates fattening their savings accounts. Young Americans, they’re struggling with debts, sky-high rents and mortgage rates that are putting home ownership further out of reach.
That’s driving a new trade recommendation from Bank of America Corp., one aimed at exploiting the widening generational wealth gap: Go long on old-people stocks. Avoid those whose fortunes ride on cash-strapped millennials.
So American Express Co. and cruise-ship lines are in. Out is Revolve Group Inc., a self-styled “next-generation fashion retailer” for the twenty-somethings.
“Millennials are really feeling the impact of the hiking cycle. Boomers, not so much,” BofA quantitative strategist Ohsung Kwon(권오성), himself a millennial, said in an interview. “We’re starting to see a big diversion between the two.”
That fault line is growing beneath an economy that’s on the surface remained surprisingly strong, largely due to a steady consumer-spending splurge since the pandemic lockdowns ended.
True, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes have slowed pockets of the economy. But they’ve also delivered what’s effectively been a steady supply of stimulus checks to older Americans, who went from receiving virtually nothing on their savings to pocketing the highest interest payouts in two decades.
Winners And Losers
That’s likely to make winners out of sectors like health care and entertainment, where older people spend a lot of money, according to BofA. Home-improvement stocks could also be rewarded, as boomers are living longer than previous generations and grow reluctant to sell homes that are locked in low mortgage rates.
On the flip side, clothing retailers, a category skewed heavily toward the young, are facing strong headwinds.
Source: BofA Global Research
The trend appears likely to continue with the Fed planning to hold interest rates high for a while and the surging federal deficit keeping upward pressure on bond yields. That, in turn, is driving up what the government pays in interest on Treasuries — which goes right back into the pockets of investors.
As a result, baby boomers and those right before them are accounting for the lion’s share of US consumption today, BofA data showed. Meanwhile, members of the cohort born between the early 1980s and late 1990s have pulled back on spending and seen delinquencies rise on credit and debit cards.
연준 고금리 정책과 연방 정부 재정 적자 심화에 따른 국채 수익률 상승의 수혜자
= 베이비 붐 세대 (이자/연금 소득으로 생활)
“Pre-pandemic, the empirical evidence was there supporting that boomers are doing better than millennials in regards to investments, retirement accounts and home ownership,” said Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management. “And post pandemic, that divide, because of higher inflation and elevated interest rates, has gotten dramatically worse. The divide is just gigantic.”
Boomers Are Cruising
According to BofA, cruise lines have the heaviest exposure to boomers, who represent roughly 40% of their trip goers. Travel was highest on the list of priorities for discretionary spending among adults over the age of 50, BofA said, citing AARP data. And that industry has benefited well from the post-pandemic travel boom: The S&P 500 hotels, resorts and cruise lines index is up nearly 28% this year, even after the drop over the past few months.
The BofA report offers few specific stock picks. But American Express is singled out as a beneficiary of its “boomer’s boom” thesis, since older adults are more prevalent users of its credit cards.
On the millennial side, BofA cited a deceleration in spending on clothing that’s already underway, which they partly attribute to a discrepancy in wealth and consumption between the two age groups. The analysts see specific risk to e-commerce retailer Revolve, which charges higher prices than its peers and is favored by Gen Z and millennial shoppers.
Yet some investors are dubious of the long-term staying power of the trade, given boomers’ rapidly advancing ages. Moreover, all that wealth will eventually be inherited — and much of it spent — by millennials.
“To focus investments for boomer preferences and not millennial preferences, I think you’re skating to where the puck is and not where it’s going,” said Douglas Boneparth, president at Bone Fide Wealth. “If there is significant wealth being transferred to millennials or younger, wouldn’t you want to understand the investment preferences and consumer habits of that generation as far as investing in the long term?”
For now, BofA argued that boomer spending and asset ownership is enough to keep consumption going. The bank has held a positive outlook on US consumer spending and stocks more broadly, with its economists scrapping a previous call that the US was heading toward a recession.
“Everyone talks about the excess savings that are dwindling, but they are double pre-Covid levels, and that’s only part of the story,” BofA’s Kwon said. “You gotta look at the whole picture, the whole balance sheet — and the balance sheet for the consumer still looks phenomenal.”
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