[경제] (블룸버그) 테슬라, 전기차 수요 감소에 불안한 출발

블룸버그 기사 요약 (ChatGPT)

2024년 첫 두 주간 동안 테슬라는 940억 달러 이상의 시장 가치를 잃으며 2010년 IPO 이후 역대 최악의 출발을 기록했습니다.이러한 하락에는 몇 가지 요인이 영향을 미쳤습니다.

첫째, 허츠 글로벌 홀딩스의 전기차 판매 중단입니다. 대규모 자동차 대여 업체였던 허츠가 전향을 선언하면서 투자심리 악화에 막대한 영향을 미쳤습니다.

둘째, 중국에서 진행된 테슬라 차량 가격 인하입니다. 테슬라는 시장 점유율 확보를 위해 가격 인하를 단행했지만, 이는 수익률 하락(지난해 27.9%에서 16.3%로)으로 이어졌습니다.

셋째, 미국 공장 노동자 임금 인상입니다. 생산 비용 상승은 앞으로도 이슈가 될 듯 보이며, 주가 하락의 핵심 원인 중 하나입니다.

최근 홍해 사태로 부품 공급 차질이 발생하면서 베를린 공장 생산이 1월 29일부터 2월 11일까지 일시 중단되는 것도 또 다른 어려움입니다. 또한 테슬라가 3분기 실적 발표 때 경고했던 전기차 수요 감소는 전 세계 자동차 제조업체와 공급업체에 영향을 미치면서 일부 기업은 전기차 증설 계획을 축소하는 상황이기도 합니다.

엘론 머스크 테슬라 CEO는 2024년 초 2주 만에 230억 달러의 순자산 손실을 겪었습니다. 이러한 어려움에도 불구하고 테슬라는 전 세계적으로 내연 기관 차량에서 전기차로의 전환에 있어 여전히 중요한 역할을 하고 있습니다. 하지만 과거의 성공과 높은 시장 가치로 인해 주가는 부정적인 뉴스에 더욱 민감하게 반응하고 있으며, 자율주행 및 인공지능 기술 관련 약속 이행에 대한 압박도 더욱 커지고 있습니다.

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(Bloomberg) Tesla Gets a $94 Billion Reality Check as EV Winter Sets In

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-13/tesla-gets-a-94-billion-reality-check-as-ev-winter-sets-in

■ Valuation hit biggest ever for Tesla in first 9 days of a year

■ China price cuts, Hertz’s EV sale, plant shutdown sour mood

The Tesla Gigafactory in Austin, Texas.

Photographer: Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg

By Esha Dey

2024년 1월 13일 오후 10:30 GMT+9

Tesla Inc. had a blockbuster 2023, as its shares more than doubled in 12 months. But 2024 is starting on a different note, with Elon Musk’s electric vehicle maker off to its worst start to any year.

The company has lost more than $94 billion in market valuation in just the first two weeks of 2024. It’s not hard to figure out why, as the Austin, Texas-based EV maker has been pounded by a barrage of negative news: an about-face on EVs from the car rental giant Hertz Global Holdings Inc., yet another price cut for its cars made in China, and signs of rising labor costs.

All of this comes in the face of slowing growth in demand for EVs, especially in the US.

“Investors’ main concern on Tesla is stagnating growth,” Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said in an interview. The price cuts in China only fan those concerns, because it is starting to look like “a race to the bottom for the EV industry given intense competition in that market.”

The hit to Tesla’s market capitalization to start the year is the biggest the company has seen over a similar period since it went public in 2010. In percentage terms, Tesla’s 12% drop since the start of January is the worst since 2016, when the stock fell 14% over the first nine trading days of the year.

To make matters worse, the odds of an imminent turnaround for the EV maker don’t look good.

Tesla has been cutting prices on its cars aggressively since early 2023 in an effort to boost demand. But the result has been a steady erosion of its once-hefty profit margin. Tesla’s automotive gross margin ex-regulatory credits for the third quarter fell to 16.3% from 27.9% a year ago. And the pressure is only mounting, now that production workers at Tesla’s US plants are getting pay raises.

“We are going through a cyclical downturn for EVs, but competitive dynamics are exacerbating the cyclical pressures,” Ivana Delevska, chief investment officer at Spear Invest, said in an interview. “Price cuts and plummeting margins are all a function of these unfavorable competitive dynamics.”

Adding to the woes, Tesla has had to re-route shipments destined for its Berlin plant after Western military actions and security concerns in the Red Sea, and is suspending most production at its plant near Berlin from Jan. 29 to Feb. 11, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Not Strong Enough

Tesla first warned about the deceleration in EV demand during its October third-quarter earnings report. Almost immediately after, automakers and suppliers across the globe chimed in with their own downbeat forecasts. Many carmakers dialed back their plans for expansion.

Then, earlier this month, Tesla reported its fourth-quarter delivery numbers. While they were better than what analysts expected, they put the company behind China’s BYD Co. in global electric-car sales.

The result has been a rude awakening for Tesla investors. Last year, the stock was the eighth best performer in the S&P 500. So far this year, it’s the eighth worst.

Naturally, Musk is taking a big hit personally. The world’s richest person, who gained more wealth in 2023 than anyone else on the planet, has seen his net worth shrink by $23 billion so far this year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Musk regained the top spot on Bloomberg’s wealth index last year, overtaking Bernard Arnault, but now Jeff Bezos is rapidly closing in, with $179 billion to Musk’s $206 billion as of Friday’s close.

The bulk of Musk’s net worth comes from his 13% stake in Tesla and about 304 million exercisable stock options. He also owns about 42% of SpaceX, which is valued at about $53 billion, according to Bloomberg’s wealth index.

Still The One

With all that being said, Tesla remains a key player in the global transition from gas-powered vehicles to largely electric ones. The reason: It’s so far ahead of its potential rivals. China’s BYD may have surpassed Tesla in the number of units sold, but it still lags in revenue and profits. And BYD doesn’t sell cars in the US, where Tesla remains the market leader.

In many ways, Tesla’s biggest problem may be its past success and the hope it generated. As investors piled into the stock, Tesla’s market capitalization ballooned, making it way larger than any other car company in the world. However, with the shares priced for perfection, that also made them highly vulnerable to big reactions to any negative news.

That’s why so many Tesla proponents argue that it shouldn’t be compared to regular car companies. To them, the ultimate true value of the company rests in the future and it’s hope to develop the first truly self-driving vehicles. The only problem is Tesla has been promising this for years, and most experts say the technology is still years, maybe even decades, away.

“Tesla has not been able to deliver on fully autonomous driving and AI promises, which are already embedded in the valuation,” Spear’s Delevska said. “Being simply another automotive manufacturer is not going to cut it for a $750 billion valuation.”

#TSLA #BYD #EV #자율주행