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[과학 | 철학] 태풍·가뭄·산불…美기후변화 경제 피해규모 매년 197조원2023.11.15 PM 04:36
미국기후평가보고서 "탄소절감 위한 노력 충분치 않다"
하와이 산불 피해 현장
[AFP 연합뉴스 자료사진]
(뉴욕=연합뉴스) 고일환 특파원 = 기후 변화로 미국이 겪는 각종 경제 피해 규모가 매년 1천500억 달러(약 197조원)에 달한다는 연구 결과가 나왔다.
14일(현지시간) 월스트리트저널(WSJ)에 따르면 미국 13개 연방정부 산하 기구로 구성된 미국지구변화연구프로그램(USGCRP)은 이 같은 내용을 담은 미국기후평가보고서(NCA)를 공개했다.
4년마다 작성되는 이 보고서에 따르면 기후변화가 불러온 자연재해로 연방 정부는 심각한 도전에 직면했다.
기후변화 피해 복구에 드는 비용은 매년 늘어나는 반면, 기후변화가 미국의 산업에 미치는 부정적인 영향으로 세수가 감소하는 이중고를 겪을 수 있다는 것이다.
미국 중서부의 농업과 동부 해안의 어업뿐 아니라 북서부의 스키 리조트와 같은 관광업까지 미국 전역의 경제활동이 기후변화의 영향을 받고 있다는 것이 USGCRP의 분석이다.
또한 보고서는 해안지역에 거주하는 미국 전체 인구의 40% 중 상당수가 해수면 상승의 위험에 노출됐다고 평가했다.
해수면 상승 탓에 21세기 말까지 미국의 수백만 가구가 거주지를 떠나야 할 것이라는 예측도 제기했다.
USGCRP은 "현재 미국 전역에서 기후변화의 영향이 감지되지만 향후 충격은 더욱 거세지고, 경제에 미치는 부정적인 영향도 급증할 것"이라고 경고했다.
탄소배출 절감을 위한 청정에너지에 대한 투자를 늘리지 않을 경우 기후변화가 가속할 것이라는 이야기다.
USGCRP은 탄소 절감을 위한 미국의 노력이 충분하지 않다고 지적했다.
지구의 평균기온 상승 폭을 산업화 이전 대비 1.5℃ 이내로 억제하자는 파리협약의 목표치를 달성하기 위해선 미국이 지난 2005년부터 2019년까지 매년 평균 6%씩 탄소배출을 줄여야 했지만, 실제로는 매년 1%에도 못 미쳤다는 것이다.
USGCRP은 기후변화가 자연과 경제, 국가 제도 등에 미치는 영향을 종합 평가하는 보고서를 4년마다 작성해 대통령과 의회에 제출한다.
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(WSJ) Climate Change’s $150 Billion Hit to the U.S. Economy
https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/climate-change-us-economy-c9fbda96
Consequences will worsen unless more is invested in clean energy and cities adapt to changing environments, a federal report finds
Rising sea levels and flooding could threaten millions of U.S. homeowners living in coastal areas.
Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images
The U.S. now experiences an extreme weather event in which damages and costs top $1 billion every three weeks.
That compares with every four months in the 1980s, when adjusted for inflation, according to the latest installment of the U.S. National Climate Assessment released Tuesday.
For the first time, the assessment includes a separate chapter on the economic impacts associated with climate action.
Such events cost the U.S. nearly $150 billion each year and disproportionately hurt poor and disadvantaged communities. Other economic consequences of climate change will become more severe unless the country invests more in clean energy and adapts cities to higher temperatures and rising sea levels, according to the assessment.
“While some economic impacts of climate change are already being felt across the country, the impacts of future changes are projected to be more significant and apparent across the U.S. economy,” the federal report said.
Ski resorts in the Northwest, farmers in the Midwest and fisheries in the Northeast all face climate-related risks to their local economies. Droughts, wildfires, hurricanes and floods occur more frequently because of rising greenhouse-gas emissions, disrupting the nation’s food and water supplies and way of life. About 40% of the U.S. population lives in coastal communities exposed to sea level rise, and millions of homeowners could be displaced by the end of the century, according to the assessment.
Farmers across the country are grappling with weather disruptions caused by climate change.
Photo: Eric Gay/Associated Press
The Energy Department said Tuesday that it is making $3.9 billion in federal grants available to upgrade the country’s stressed power grid, the latest in a string of investments funded by the 2021 infrastructure law. The Environmental Protection Agency, meanwhile, is offering $2 billion for community climate projects through last year’s climate law known as the Inflation Reduction Act.
Such investments are urgent because the U.S. and other countries need to accelerate emissions reductions and remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to slow climate change, Tuesday’s report said.
A recent decline in U.S. emissions isn’t enough to put the country on track to meet its climate goals, the report concluded. Emissions fell less than 1% a year on average from 2005 to 2019 but would have to decline more than 6% on average annually to keep the climate from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by midcentury, in line with national targets and the Paris climate accord. Many countries are behind on their Paris pledges.
Tuesday’s report comes ahead of a global climate summit in the United Arab Emirates scheduled to begin later this month. It coincides with a push from the Biden administration to channel billions of dollars into clean-energy projects to create jobs and slow climate change. The report supports the president’s strategy of turning the climate crisis into economic opportunity through subsidies and other incentives, White House national climate adviser Ali Zaidi said.
Outdoor sports and tourism that support many local economies will be disrupted by changing weather patterns.
Photo: Marlena Sloss/Bloomberg News
Companies building new manufacturing facilities to take advantage will have to invest in climate solutions such as water recycling in the Southwest to realize the economic benefits, according to the assessment.
“It just becomes even more important to implement resilience strategies to ensure those critical infrastructure and economic development assets are protected from climate change,” said Dave White, director of Arizona State University’s Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation and a co-author of the report.
U.S. cities had record waves of extreme heat this past summer.
Photo: Caitlin O’Hara/Bloomberg News
The assessment also focuses on opportunities created by the shift away from fossil fuels, finding that losses in fossil-fuel related jobs are expected to be more than offset by new clean-energy jobs and that the benefits of slowing climate change will outweigh the costs. Cities, states and federal governments will face greater expenses from disaster response and other costs and lower revenue from lost taxes and other sources the longer they wait to act, the report says.
Created in 1990, the national climate assessment is mandated by law and produced every four years, though it sometimes gets delayed. This latest version—the fifth—expands on findings from the last assessment in 2018 and was written by more than 750 experts and reviewed by 14 federal agencies.
The new chapter on economics details how climate change can affect life expectancy, recreational activities and mental health in addition to more tangible disaster costs.
“It really paints a much broader picture of the ways in which climate change is affecting daily life,” said Delavane Diaz, a principal team lead at the nonprofit Electric Power Research Institute and a co-author of the report.